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业绩分化龙头集中,经纪回暖自营下滑

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月20日 14:09:12
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(外)(资)(券)(商)(限)(制)(放)(开)(,中)(小)(券)(商)(影)(响)(较)(大)(。金)(融)(市)(场)(开)(放)(是)(2018年)(金)(融)(改)(革)(的)(重)(点)(之)(一)(,4月)(29日)(证)(监)(会)(正)(式)(发)(布)(《外)(商)(投)(资)(证)(券)(公)(司)(管)(理)(办)(法)(》,主)(要)(修)(订)(内)(容)(包)(括)(:允)(许)(外)(资)(控)(股)(合)(资)(券)(商)(、逐)(步)(开)(放)(合)(资)(券)(商)(业)(务)(范)(围)(,统)(一)(外)(资)(持)(有)(上)(市)(和)(非)(上)(市)(两)(类)(券)(商)(股)(权)(的)(比)(例)(,完)(善)(境)(外)(股)(东)(条)(件)(、明)(确)(境)(内)(股)(东)(的)(实)(际)(控)(制)(人)(身)(份)(变)(更)(导)(致)(券)(商)(性)(质)(变)(更)(的)(相)(关)(政)(策)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,外)(资)(持)(股)(限)(制)(和)(经)(营)(范)(围)(的)(开)(放)(将)(强)(化)(券)(商)(市)(场)(化)(竞)(争)(,但)(考)(虑)(到)(本)(土)(龙)(头)(券)(商)(在)(资)(本)(、人)(才)(、机)(制)(等)(多)(方)(面)(的)(优)(势)(,预)(计)(外)(资)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(入)(驻)(可)(能)(更)(多)(会)(冲)(击)(到)(中)(小)(券)(商)(。
2.经)(纪)(回)(暖)(受)(益)(低)(基)(数)(,自)(营)(成)(为)(双)(刃)(剑)(
2.1.经)(纪)(占)(比)(重)(超)(自)(营)(,多)(元)(布)(局)(推)(进)(
经)(纪)(收)(入)(占)(比)(重)(新)(超)(过)(自)(营)(。由)(于)(2018年)(一)(季)(度)(股)(市)(波)(动)(率)(大)(,导)(致)(券)(商)(自)(营)(收)(益)(表)(现)(平)(淡)(,上)(市)(券)(商)(一)(季)(度)(自)(营)(收)(益)(合)(计)(157亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(1%,收)(入)(占)(比)(降)(至)(26.6%。一)(季)(度)(市)(场)(交)(易)(量)(同)(比)(回)(暖)(且)(佣)(金)(率)(降)(幅)(趋)(缓)(,上)(市)(券)(商)(一)(季)(度)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(合)(计)(158元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(1%,自)(2016年)(一)(季)(度)(以)(来)(首)(次)(实)(现)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(同)(比)(正)(增)(长)(,且)(收)(入)(占)(比)((27.7%)重)(新)(超)(过)(自)(营)(。此)(外)(,利)(息)(净)(收)(入)(和)(资)(管)(业)(务)(收)(入)(占)(比)(微)(幅)(提)(升)(,投)(行)(收)(入)(占)(比)(进)(一)(步)(下)(滑)(,券)(商)(多)(元)(金)(融)(业)(务)((基)(金)(、国)(际)(、期)(货)(等)()收)(入)(占)(比)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(至)(16%。
经)(纪)(资)(管)(自)(营)(有)(正)(向)(贡)(献)(,多)(元)(布)(局)(推)(进)(。通)(过)(对)(各)(业)(务)(利)(润)(贡)(献)(度)(的)(分)(解)(,可)(以)(发)(现)(2018年)(一)(季)(度)(上)(市)(券)(商)(股)(多)(元)(金)(融)(业)(务)(利)(润)(贡)(献)(度)(最)(高)(,达)(到)(28%。经)(纪)(、自)(营)(和)(资)(管)(业)(务)(有)(正)(向)(贡)(献)(,投)(行)(和)(信)(用)(交)(易)(业)(务)(拖)(累)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(。此)(外)(,一)(季)(度)(券)(商)(营)(业)(支)(出)(增)(加)(也)(拖)(累)(了)(归)(母)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(。
2.2.股)(基)(交)(易)(额)(同)(比)(回)(暖)(,佣)(金)(率)(降)(幅)(趋)(缓)(
经)(纪)(收)(入)(整)(体)(回)(暖)(,分)(化)(延)(续)(龙)(头)(集)(中)(。2018年)(一)(季)(度)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(收)(入)(同)(比)(回)(升)(1%,其)(中)(大)(中)(券)(商)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(收)(入)(涨)(多)(跌)(少)(,小)(券)(商)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(收)(入)(仍)(同)(比)(减)(少)(。随)(着)(互)(联)(网)(科)(技)(的)(发)(展)(,部)(分)(券)(商)(通)(过)(低)(佣)(战)(略)(抢)(占)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,因)(此)(2015年)(以)(来)(上)(市)(券)(商)(股)(基)(交)(易)(额)(市)(占)(率)(的)(集)(中)(度)(在)(下)(降)(,2018年)(一)(季)(度)(降)(至)(47%。但)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(收)(入)(与)(股)(基)(交)(易)(额)(的)(市)(场)(集)(中)(度)(发)(生)(明)(显)(背)(离)(,大)(型)(券)(商)(在)(综)(合)(佣)(金)(率)(方)(面)(更)(具)(优)(势)(,因)(此)(前)(十)(大)(上)(市)(券)(商)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(市)(占)(率)(保)(持)(在)(70%以)(上)(,且)(有)(进)(一)(步)(提)(升)(的)(趋)(势)(。
市)(场)(风)(格)(切)(换)(加)(快)(带)(动)(交)(易)(量)(上)(升)(。新)(增)(投)(资)(者)(数)(量)(在)(边)(际)(上)(有)(改)(善)(,但)(低)(于)(2017年)(同)(期)(水)(平)(:2018年)(一)(季)(度)(平)(均)(每)(周)(新)(增)(投)(资)(者)(约)(为)(27万)(人)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(32%。结)(合)(交)(易)(量)(变)(化)(来)(看)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(:股)(基)(交)(易)(量)(同)(比)(增)(长)(主)(要)(来)(自)(市)(场)(风)(格)(切)(换)(加)(快)(,体)(现)(为)(存)(量)(客)(户)(交)(易)(意)(愿)(的)(增)(强)(而)(非)(新)(增)(客)(户)(或)(资)(金)(增)(加)(。
经)(纪)(业)(务)(佣)(金)(率)(企)(稳)(,券)(商)(加)(快)(业)(务)(转)(型)(。经)(纪)(业)(务)(佣)(金)(率)(降)(幅)(明)(显)(趋)(缓)(,2017年)(上)(市)(券)(商)(平)(均)(净)(佣)(金)(率)(降)(至)(万)(分)(之)(3.2,较)(2016年)(下)(降)(0.3bps,降)(幅)(小)(于)(前)(三)(年)(。上)(市)(券)(商)(纷)(纷)(开)(展)(机)(构)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(和)(财)(富)(管)(理)(业)(务)(,弥)(补)(代)(理)(买)(卖)(证)(券)(业)(务)(佣)(金)(率)(的)(下)(降)(,从)(综)(合)(佣)(金)(率)(的)(口)(径)(来)(看)((含)(席)(位)(租)(赁)(和)(代)(销)(金)(融)(产)(品)(),2017年)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(综)(合)(佣)(金)(率)(万)(分)(之)(3.9,仅)(较)(2016年)(下)(降)(0.1bp。由)(于)(2018年)(一)(季)(报)(未)(详)(细)(披)(露)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(分)(项)(数)(据)(,我)(们)(根)(据)(交)(易)(量)(和)(上)(市)(券)(商)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(收)(入)(推)(断)(一)(季)(度)(经)(纪)(业)(务)(佣)(金)(率)(仍)(有)(下)(降)(,但)(降)(幅)(不)(大)(。
2.3.信)(用)(交)(易)(业)(务)(利)(差)(下)(降)(且)(风)(险)(敞)(口)(扩)(大)(
2018年)(一)(季)(度)(上)(市)(券)(商)(利)(息)(净)(收)(入)(同)(比)(减)(少)(26%,多)(家)(券)(商)(利)(息)(净)(收)(入)(为)(负)(值)(。从)(收)(入)(端)(来)(看)(,两)(融)(业)(务)(围)(绕)(1万)(亿)(元)(浮)(动)(,没)(有)(明)(显)(提)(升)(趋)(势)(,股)(权)(质)(押)(业)(务)(风)(险)(增)(加)(将)(导)(致)(该)(业)(务)(规)(模)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,部)(分)(券)(商)(开)(展)(低)(息)(竞)(争)(可)(能)(会)(降)(低)(整)(体)(收)(益)(水)(平)(;从)(资)(金)(成)(本)(来)(看)(,券)(商)(自)(2017年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(大)(幅)(提)(高)(债)(务)(融)(资)(规)(模)(,导)(致)(利)(息)(支)(出)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(,市)(场)(利)(率)(中)(枢)(整)(体)(上)(行)(导)(致)(券)(商)(融)(资)(成)(本)(提)(高)(,同)(时)(利)(息)(净)(收)(入)(与)(利)(息)(收)(入)(之)(比)(同)(比)(下)(降)(1.8个)(百)(分)(点)(。因)(此)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(2018年)(上)(市)(券)(商)(信)(用)(交)(易)(业)(务)(利)(差)(可)(能)(会)(缩)(小)(。
2.4.IPO再)(融)(资)(此)(消)(彼)(长)(,债)(券)(承)(销)(压)(力)(减)(小)(
投)(行)(收)(入)(下)(滑)(明)(显)(。受)(投)(行)(项)(目)(发)(行)(数)(量)(和)(规)(模)(下)(降)(的)(影)(响)(,2018年)(一)(季)(度)(上)(市)(券)(商)(投)(行)(业)(务)(收)(入)(整)(体)(下)(降)(29%,大)(型)(券)(商)(投)(行)(收)(入)(也)(普)(遍)(下)(降)(,部)(分)(实)(现)(业)(务)(收)(入)(正)(增)(长)(的)(券)(商)(与)(偏)(低)(的)(基)(数)(有)(关)(。
IPO发)(行)(难)(度)(提)(升)(,再)(融)(资)(回)(暖)(。2018年)(一)(季)(度)(IPO发)(行)(难)(度)(明)(显)(增)(大)(,券)(商)(合)(计)(IPO发)(行)(家)(数)(37家)(,规)(模)(399亿)(元)((QoQ-23%,YoY-43%),审)(核)(通)(过)(率)(仅)(为)(45%。另)(一)(方)(面)(,一)(季)(度)(再)(融)(资)(发)(行)(规)(模)(4687亿)(元)((QoQ+12%,YoY-8%),规)(模)(环)(比)(提)(升)(且)(同)(比)(降)(幅)(收)(窄)(,原)(来)(受)(“18个)(月)(”限)(制)(而)(延)(后)(的)(再)(融)(资)(发)(行)(诉)(求)(得)(到)(逐)(步)(释)(放)(。
债)(券)(承)(销)(压)(力)(仍)(存)(,具)(有)(边)(际)(改)(善)(可)(能)(。一)(季)(度)(券)(商)(主)(承)(销)(债)(券)(规)(模)(6775亿)(元)(,较)(2017年)(4季)(度)(环)(比)(下)(降)(43%,同)(比)(下)(降)(2%。受)(实)(体)(经)(济)(去)(杠)(杆)(、债)(券)(市)(场)(利)(率)(上)(行)(叠)(加)(严)(监)(管)(对)(于)(流)(动)(性)(的)(限)(制)(,预)(计)(2018年)(债)(券)(承)(销)(规)(模)(仍)(将)(继)(续)(下)(降)(。但)(ABS业)(务)(成)(为)(规)(模)(增)(量)(来)(源)(,叠)(加)(利)(率)(上)(行)(态)(势)(企)(稳)(后)(公)(司)(债)(降)(幅)(可)(能)(趋)(缓)(。
CDR业)(务)(带)(来)(增)(量)(,预)(计)(贡)(献)(30%投)(行)(收)(入)(。一)(方)(面)(IPO审)(核)(明)(显)(从)(严)(,2018年)(一)(季)(度)(IPO发)(行)(规)(模)(399亿)(元)((YoY-43%),IPO审)(核)(通)(过)(率)(仅)(为)(48%;另)(一)(方)(面)(,新)(兴)(产)(业)(“独)(角)(兽)(”企)(业)(获)(政)(策)(支)(持)(,体)(现)(在)(A股)(IPO“即)(报)(即)(审)(”政)(策)(和)(CDR试)(点)(的)(推)(出)(。参)(考)(海)(外)(经)(验)(和)(国)(内)(IPO发)(行)(费)(率)(,假)(定)(券)(商)(承)(销)(CDR的)(费)(率)(约)(为)(6-8%,按)(5%市)(值)(计)(算)(阿)(里)(巴)(巴)(、百)(度)(等)(6家)(企)(业)(融)(资)(需)(求)(约)(2600亿)(元)(,预)(计)(投)(行)(收)(入)(156-208亿)(元)(、占)(2018年)(投)(行)(收)(入)(比)(重)(约)(26%-35%。
2.5.自)(营)(成)(为)(双)(刃)(剑)(,业)(务)(模)(式)(有)(待)(升)(级)(
券)(商)(自)(营)(业)(绩)(分)(化)(。2018年)(一)(季)(度)(上)(市)(券)(商)(自)(营)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(1%,券)(商)(之)(间)(投)(资)(收)(益)(分)(化)(明)(显)(。收)(益)(分)(化)(与)(“股)(冷)(债)(热)(”的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(有)(关)(:一)(季)(度)(蓝)(筹)(股)(收)(益)(率)(先)(升)(后)(降)(,沪)(深)(300累)(计)(下)(跌)(3.3%,而)(创)(业)(板)(指)(累)(计)(上)(涨)(8.4%;债)(市)(出)(现)(回)(暖)(,中)(债)(总)(全)(价)(指)(数)(一)(季)(度)(上)(升)(1.2%。券)(商)(自)(营)(结)(构)(和)(投)(资)(能)(力)(的)(分)(化)(导)(致)(了)(业)(绩)(的)(分)(化)(,例)(如)(东)(方)(证)(券)(坚)(持)(以)(价)(值)(投)(资)(为)(主)(,2017年)(自)(营)(收)(益)(同)(比)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(但)(在)(2018年)(一)(季)(度)(同)(比)(减)(少)(了)(75%。
IFRS9准)(则)(下)(A+H股)(券)(商)(自)(营)(浮)(盈)(直)(接)(在)(利)(润)(表)(中)(体)(现)(。2017年)(末)(A+H股)(券)(商)(兑)(现)(投)(资)(浮)(盈)(,四)(季)(度)(投)(资)(收)(益)(明)(显)(提)(升)(。2018年)(起)(,A+H股)(券)(商)(业)(绩)(与)(股)(市)(关)(联)(性)(进)(一)(步)(提)(升)(。IFRS9主)(要)(影)(响)(三)(部)(分)(资)(产)(:二)(级)(市)(场)(股)(票)(投)(资)(将)(明)(显)(到)(受)(股)(市)(短)(期)(波)(动)(的)(影)(响)(,权)(益)(投)(资)(占)(比)(较)(高)(的)(券)(商)(将)(面)(临)(较)(大)(的)(风)(险)(敞)(口)(;二)(级)(市)(场)(债)(券)(波)(动)(性)(相)(对)(较)(小)(,影)(响)(相)(对)(有)(限)(;直)(投)(业)(务)(影)(响)(分)(化)(,已)(上)(市)(但)(还)(处)(于)(限)(售)(期)(的)(投)(资)(会)(受)(到)(市)(场)(波)(动)(影)(响)(,未)(上)(市)(资)(产)(则)(不)(受)(影)(响)(,未)(来)(券)(商)(可)(能)(会)(缩)(减)(单)(一)(项)(目)(的)(投)(资)(规)(模)(。
自)(营)(投)(资)(模)(式)(仍)(有)(升)(级)(空)(间)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(券)(商)(自)(营)(投)(资)(模)(式)(仍)(有)(升)(级)(空)(间)(,主)(要)(方)(向)(是)(改)(善)(投)(资)(策)(略)(和)(布)(局)(FICC业)(务)(。一)(方)(面)(券)(商)(已)(逐)(步)(减)(少)(方)(向)(性)(投)(资)(策)(略)(,增)(加)(非)(方)(向)(性)(投)(资)(策)(略)((增)(加)(持)(有)(到)(期)(投)(资)(或)(开)(展)(套)(期)(保)(值)(交)(易)(),开)(展)(量)(化)(交)(易)(投)(资)(,优)(化)(自)(营)(投)(资)(结)(构)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(FICC业)(务)(还)(有)(发)(展)(空)(间)(,其)(中)(衍)(生)(品)(交)(易)(和)(外)(汇)(交)(易)(还)(是)(券)(商)(未)(充)(分)(开)(发)(的)(业)(务)(,预)(计)(将)(在)(合)(规)(的)(基)(础)(上)(得)(到)(发)(展)(。
2.6.资)(管)(转)(型)(效)(果)(超)(预)(期)(
资)(管)(转)(型)(效)(果)(超)(预)(期)(。2018年)(一)(季)(度)(年)(上)(市)(券)(商)(资)(管)(收)(入)(64亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(18%,转)(型)(效)(果)(超)(此)(前)(预)(期)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(券)(商)(开)(展)(费)(率)(较)(高)(的)(主)(动)(管)(理)(业)(务)(代)(替)(通)(道)(业)(务)(,虽)(然)(资)(管)(规)(模)(下)(降)(但)(收)(入)(得)(到)(提)(升)(。主)(动)(管)(理)(业)(务)(占)(比)(较)(高)(的)(券)(商)(资)(管)(收)(入)(增)(长)(较)(快)(,例)(如)(东)(方)(证)(券)((+233%)、光)(大)(证)(券)((+168%),海)(通)(证)(券)(自)(2017年)(起)(就)(已)(积)(极)(转)(型)(,2018年)(一)(季)(度)(收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(2倍)(以)(上)(,体)(现)(了)(转)(型)(的)(成)(效)(。
券)(商)(定)(向)(资)(管)(规)(模)(已)(明)(显)(缩)(减)(。根)(据)(中)(国)(基)(金)(业)(协)(会)(统)(计)(,2017年)(末)(资)(管)(规)(模)(较)(三)(季)(度)(末)(继)(续)(缩)(减)(,由)(17.4万)(亿)(元)(降)(至)(16.9万)(亿)(元)(。其)(中)(定)(向)(资)(管)(规)(模)(下)(降)(幅)(度)(较)(大)(,由)(14.73万)(亿)(元)(降)(至)(14.39万)(亿)(元)(,符)(合)(“去)(通)(道)(”的)(监)(管)(方)(向)(,集)(合)(资)(管)(规)(模)(由)(2.19万)(亿)(元)(微)(降)(至)(2.11万)(亿)(元)(,主)(要)(是)(去)(除)(其)(中)(“资)(金)(池)(业)(务)(”和)(小)(部)(分)(通)(道)(类)(资)(管)(业)(务)(。
资)(管)(新)(规)(靴)(子)(落)(地)(,券)(商)(资)(管)(强)(者)(恒)(强)(。2018年)(4月)(27日)(资)(管)(新)(规)(终)(于)(落)(地)(,此)(次)(新)(规)(在)(进)(一)(步)(细)(化)(资)(管)(行)(业)(“去)(通)(道)(、降)(杠)(杆)(”要)(求)(的)(基)(础)(上)(将)(过)(渡)(期)(延)(长)(至)(2020年)(底)(,表)(明)(监)(管)(在)(保)(持)(严)(监)(管)(的)(基)(调)(不)(变)(的)(同)(时)(,力)(求)(市)(场)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(,使)(资)(管)(机)(构)(和)(投)(资)(者)(均)(有)(充)(分)(时)(间)(进)(行)(调)(整)(,降)(低)(对)(市)(场)(的)(冲)(击)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(资)(管)(新)(规)(落)(地)(将)(加)(速)(券)(商)(资)(管)(的)(分)(化)(,体)(现)(在)(:
①券)(商)(竞)(争)(力)(分)(化)(。由)(于)(主)(动)(型)(资)(管)(资)(金)(占)(用)(高)(、业)(务)(难)(度)(大)(,主)(动)(管)(理)(能)(力)(强)(或)(综)(合)(实)(力)(突)(出)(的)(券)(商)(将)(获)(得)(市)(场)(集)(中)(红)(利)(,2018年)(一)(季)(度)(前)(十)(大)(券)(商)(资)(管)(收)(入)(市)(占)(率)(高)(达)(85%;中)(小)(券)(商)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(力)(明)(显)(下)(降)(,可)(能)(寻)(求)(特)(色)(化)(发)(展)(路)(径)(。
②转)(型)(快)(的)(券)(商)(获)(得)(政)(策)(红)(利)(。监)(管)(鼓)(励)(金)(融)(机)(构)(尽)(早)(完)(成)(业)(务)(转)(型)(,主)(动)(管)(理)(能)(力)(强)(或)(转)(型)(彻)(底)(的)(券)(商)(将)(获)(得)(政)(策)(红)(利)(。
③券)(商)(资)(管)(面)(临)(大)(资)(管)(行)(业)(竞)(争)(。以)(往)(券)(商)(资)(管)(依)(靠)(牌)(照)(优)(势)(和)(监)(管)(套)(利)(实)(现)(快)(速)(发)(展)(,资)(管)(新)(规)(落)(地)(后)(券)(商)(资)(管)(将)(面)(临)(银)(行)(理)(财)(、公)(募)(、信)(托)(等)(资)(管)(机)(构)(的)(直)(接)(竞)(争)(,机)(构)(和)(高)(净)(值)(客)(户)(黏)(着)(难)(度)(加)(大)(。
来)(源)(:湘)(怀)(看)(非)(银)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


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